Super Group Stock Soars as Africa Bets Hit

• Gambling
• 15 September 2025

Super Group (NYSE: SGHC), which is already among the best-performing stocks of the year, gained a new admirer on Monday when a prominent sell-side analyst began covering the online betting company.

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon began covering Super Group with a "outperform" rating and a $17 price target in a note sent to clients earlier today. This suggests potential upside of around 34% from today's finish of $12.69.  His optimistic remarks, which are fueled in part by the company's exposure to Africa, come ahead of the operator's investor day on Thursday, September 18.

"With 2025E revs up 90%+ since 2021, Africa revs have increased 200%+ and comprise 40% of total,” observes Beynon. “While most is driven from South Africa, SGHC has diversified and is participating in the rising GDPs and digital participation rates of smaller, but high-growth markets, including podium positions in its eight markets, a major differentiator.”

Super Group is demonstrating that Africa is a profitable continent, despite the fact that most US investors disregard it and that the majority of iGaming and sports betting companies are listed here.  Even though the operator announced in July that it was leaving the US iGaming sector, the stock has more than doubled so far this year. This announcement came a year after the business informed investors that it was leaving the US sports betting market.

Rule of 40 Stock Super Group

Super Group is a mid-cap company with a $6.36 billion market capitalization, which is a class of stocks that investors frequently neglect, regardless of industry.

Some market participants overlook Super Group, which is understandable given that it is a mid-cap and no longer exposed to the US, but this shouldn't be the case.  "Not when the stock has more than doubled and is a Rule of 40 name that is attractively valued," Beyonon said.  Usually, high-growth software stocks are the only ones that qualify for the Rule of 40 designation.

The Rule of 40 is a financial metric used in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry that states a successful, financially stable business should have a combined revenue growth rate and profit margin of 40% or higher.

Although Rule of 40 equities are frequently highly valued, Beyonon notes that they only trade at 12x and 10x 2025 and anticipated 2026 enterprise value/earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA), respectively, whereas the peer group for digital gaming trades at 20x and 15x.

Super Group Stock Benefits from iGaming Exposure

Super Group’s choice to exit out of the US is benefiting investors on another: it allows the company to focus on higher growth iGaming.  According to Beyonon, internet casinos make up 80% of Super Group's business mix and have larger margins than sports betting.

Another reason makes the company's exposure to iGaming relevant.  Only seven US states allow that type of gambling, and it may be years before another does as well. In contrast, Africa is more accepting and has fewer land-based casinos that could pose a threat.  Super Group is also essentially sound.

“Additionally, as of 2Q25, the company has no debt on its balance sheet with consolidated unrestricted cash of $393 million, which we believe creates ample capacity to conduct M&A for inorganic growth and to bolster market share,” concludes Beynon. “Highlighting the company’s free cash flow generation, SGHC also pays a $0.04 quarterly dividend and issued a special dividend in the past.”